The Economic Consequences of UN Peacekeeping Operations: Causal Analysis for Conflict Management and Peace Research
Conflict management and peace research are primarily oriented towards the evaluation of causal theories. Generally, this research manifests as a quantitative assessment of some program designed to promote peace. However, the dominant methodological approach in these fields is often insufficient to evaluate the effect of any given conflict management program. Instead, researchers estimate descriptive findings, lacking the tools to elevate descriptive findings to causal estimates. Further, researchers will often errantly use causal language to communicate descriptive findings. This article outlines the steps and tools required to make causal inferences in conflict management and peace research. Such an endeavor is important for scientific and policy-applicable reasons. A shift towards overtly causal research not only closes the gap between theory and methods but encourages theoretical enrichment. Causal conclusions are also more valuable to policymakers who are primarily interested in whether a certain policy works, rather than if a certain policy is correlated with a favorable outcome. Serving as an illustrative example of causal analysis in conflict management and peace research, this article examines the effect of United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKOs) on economic development. Contrary to expectations, I find that UN PKOs have an immediate and extended negative effect on economic development. However, more theoretical work and causal research designs are needed to place definitive confidence in these results.