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development_timeline.md

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Development Timeline

v0.1 Alpha [released in 2020]

Working version of NeuralProphet with missing features and potentially containing bugs.

v0.2 to v0.5 Beta NeuralProphet [current]

Modelling capabilities:

  • [done] Trend, piecewise linear changepoints
  • [done] Auto-regression, univariate, multi-step ahead forecasts
  • [done] Seasonalities, based on fourier-terms
  • [done] Optional hidden layers for AR
  • [done] Manage missing data - basic automatic imputation
  • [done] Basic Automatic hyperparameter selection
  • [done] Custom Metrics
  • [done] Training with evaluation on holdout set
  • [done] Events and Holidays
  • [done] Exagenous variables (as covariate inputs)
  • Simple Uncertainty estimation

User Interface:

  • simple package with limited capabilities
  • similar to Facebook Prophet's basic features

Accompanying Products:

  • Quickstart documentation and examples
  • Benchmarks (Accuracy and Execution time)
  • Few datasets

v1.0 NeuralProphet

Added modelling capabilities:

  • More intelligent Automatic hyperparameter selection
  • different ways to manage trend/normalize data and compute seasonality (rolling, local seasonality, ...)
  • Inclusion of traditional models (ets, sarimax, ...)
  • Component-wise uncertainty

User Interface:

  • More user-control (set trend changepoint times, ...)
  • Rich analytics and plotting
  • Model gives user feedback on how to improve hyperparameters (if set)
  • Integration with Time-Series Preprocessing tools

Accompanying Products:

  • Large collection of time-series datasets
  • Professional documentation and more tutorials

v2.0 Redesigned - Modular Framework

Here, we will re-write large portions of the code structure in order to make it a modular framework where model components can freely be interchanged and combined.

Added modelling capabilities:

  • Inclusion of more potent models (Recurrence, Convolution, Attention, ...)

User Interface:

  • Tools for Understanding of model and input-output mapping
  • Integration with relevant Interfaces (Pytorch metrics, Tensorboard, scikitlearn, ...)

Accompanying Products:

  • Pre-trained models

v3.0 Nice UI for non-programmers

Alternative visual web-interface, potentially cloud-based execution